Some Consideration on the Treatment of Uncertainties in Risk Assessment for Practical Decision Making

Terje Aven (1) , Enrico Zio (2, 3, 4)

1 University of Stavanger
2 Dipartimento di Energia [Milano]
3 SSEC - Chaire Sciences des Systèmes et Défis Energétiques EDF/ECP/Supélec
4 LGI - Laboratoire Génie Industriel - EA 2606

This paper discusses the challenges involved in the representation and treatment of uncertainties in risk assessment, taking the point of view of its use in support to decision making. Two main issues are addressed: (1) how to faithfully represent and express the knowledge available to best support the decision making and (2) how to best inform the decision maker. A general risk-uncertainty framework is presented which provides definitions and interpretations of the key concepts introduced. The framework covers probability theory as well as alternative representations of uncertainty, including interval probability, possibility and evidence theory.

Keywords: Risk assessment; Uncertainty representations; Decision-making

Terje Aven, Enrico Zio. Some Consideration on the Treatment of Uncertainties in Risk Assessment for Practical Decision Making. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2011, 96 (1), pp.64-74. ⟨10.1016/j.ress.2010.06.001⟩. ⟨hal-00610508⟩