Monte Carlo and fuzzy interval propagation of hybrid uncertainties on a risk model for the design of a flood protection dike

Piero Baraldi (1) , Nicola Pedroni (1) , Enrico Zio (1, 2) , Elisa Ferrario (1) , Alberto Pasanisi (3) , Mathieu Couplet (3)

1 Dipartimento di Energia [Milano]
2 SSEC - Chaire Sciences des Systèmes et Défis Energétiques EDF/ECP/Supélec
3 EDF - EDF

A risk model may contain uncertainties that may be best represented by probability distributions and others by possibility distributions. In this paper, a computational framework that jointly propagates probabilistic and possibilistic uncertainties is compared with a pure probabilistic uncertainty propagation. The comparison is carried out with reference to a risk model concerning the design of a flood protection dike.

Domains: Other

Piero Baraldi, Nicola Pedroni, Enrico Zio, Elisa Ferrario, Alberto Pasanisi, et al.. Monte Carlo and fuzzy interval propagation of hybrid uncertainties on a risk model for the design of a flood protection dike. ESREL 2011, Sep 2011, Troyes, France. pp.2167-2175. ⟨hal-00658077⟩