Uncertainty analysis of a model of an energy distribution system with solar panel generation by Time-Varying Data Analysis, Monte Carlo Simulation and Fuzzy Interval Analysis

Elisa Ferrario (1) , Alessia Pini (2)

1 SSEC - Chaire Sciences des Systèmes et Défis Energétiques EDF/ECP/Supélec
2 MOX - Department of Mathematics

The uncertainties in the model of an energy distribution system made of a solar panel, a storage energy system and loads (power demanded by the end-users) are investigated, treating the epistemic variables as possibilistic and the aleatory ones as probabilistic. In particular, time-varying probabilistic distributions of the solar irradiation and the power demanded by the end-users is inferred from historical data. Then a computational framework for the joint propagation of both types of uncertainty is applied through the model of the energy distribution system to compute the Expected Energy Not Supplied.

Domains: Engineering Sciences [physics]; Other

Elisa Ferrario, Alessia Pini. Uncertainty analysis of a model of an energy distribution system with solar panel generation by Time-Varying Data Analysis, Monte Carlo Simulation and Fuzzy Interval Analysis. ESREL 2013, Sep 2013, Amsterdam, Netherlands. pp.1-8. ⟨hal-00838660⟩