Model Output Uncertainty in Risk Assessment - CentraleSupélec Accéder directement au contenu
Article Dans Une Revue International Journal of Performability Engineering Année : 2013

Model Output Uncertainty in Risk Assessment

Résumé

In the context of risk assessment, we focus on the prediction of an unknown quantity Z whose value is realised in the future, and for which experimental data are not available. We deal with the issue of the uncertainty associated to the difference between the output of the model used for the prediction of Z and the true unknown value of Z itself. Accepted principles and methods for handling this uncertainty in the specific conditions of risk assessment are still lacking. Through the paper we seek to contribute by: i) making a clear distinction between model output uncertainty (epistemic uncertainty about the differences between the true values of the output quantities and the values predicted by the model) and sources of model output uncertainty, from incomplete/imprecise knowledge on the values of the parameters of the model to model assumptions, simplifications and approximations introduced in the model, ii) distinguishing between model output uncertainty, structural model uncertainty and parameter (model input quantities) uncertainty, iii) establishing explicit links between the different purposes of modelling and risk assessment, discussing how model output uncertainty should be treated in the different instances. We argue that in risk assessment, quantification of model output uncertainty serves for the qualification and acceptance of the models used, whose outputs feed the following risk-informed decision making process.

Domaines

Autre
Fichier principal
Vignette du fichier
IJPE_433_12_Aven_-ZioCopy-final.pdf (215.65 Ko) Télécharger le fichier
Origine : Fichiers produits par l'(les) auteur(s)
Loading...

Dates et versions

hal-00926328 , version 1 (10-01-2014)

Identifiants

  • HAL Id : hal-00926328 , version 1

Citer

Enrico Zio, Terje Aven. Model Output Uncertainty in Risk Assessment. International Journal of Performability Engineering, 2013, 29 (5), pp.475-486. ⟨hal-00926328⟩
237 Consultations
683 Téléchargements

Partager

Gmail Facebook X LinkedIn More