An integrated systemic method for supply reliability assessment of natural gas pipeline networks

Abstract : A systematic method is developed for supply reliability assessment of natural gas pipeline networks. In thedeveloped method, the integration of stochastic processes, graph theory and thermal-hydraulic simulation isperformed accounting for uncertainty and complexity. The supply capacity of a pipeline network depends on theunit states and the network structure, both of which change stochastically because of stochastic failures of theunits. To describe this, in this work a capacity network stochastic model is developed, based on Markov mod-eling and graph theory. The model is embedded in an optimization algorithm to compute the capacities of thepipeline network under different scenarios and analyze the consequences of failures of units in the system.Indices of supply reliability and risk are developed with respect to two aspects: global system and individualcustomers. In the case study, a gas pipeline network is considered and the results are analyzed in detail.