# Bias and Variance in the Bayesian Subset Simulation Algorithm

Abstract : The Bayesian Subset Simulation (BSS) algorithm is a recently proposed approach, based on Sequential Monte Carlo simulation and Gaussian process modeling, for the estimation of the probability that $f(X)$ exceeds some thresold $u$ when $f$ is expensive to evaluate and $P(f(X)>u)$ is small. We discuss in this talk the bias an variance of the BSS algorithm, and propose a variant where the bias-variance trade-off is automatically tuned.
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Conference papers
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https://hal-centralesupelec.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01377732
Contributor : Julien Bect <>
Submitted on : Friday, October 7, 2016 - 2:59:35 PM
Last modification on : Friday, December 21, 2018 - 11:10:11 AM

### Identifiers

• HAL Id : hal-01377732, version 1

### Citation

Julien Bect, Roman Sueur, Emmanuel Vazquez. Bias and Variance in the Bayesian Subset Simulation Algorithm. 2016 SIAM Conference on Uncertainty Quantification, Apr 2016, Lausanne, Switzerland. ⟨hal-01377732⟩

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